Wie groß ist erdogan

Surrounded über rivals amid a collapsing economy, die Turkish president zu sein facing the longest odds of his life.

Du schaust: Wie groß ist erdogan

von Steven A. Cook, a columnist punkt Foreign Policy und the Eni enrico Mattei unterschied fellow weil das Middle East und Africa lernen at the Council on international Relations.

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Turkish prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan gets die help of a bodyguard as he takes off his overcoat throughout his visit at the "La Alhambra" an Granada, Spain, 13 january 2008 . CRISTINA QUICLER/AFP via getty Images

In Turkey, it seems, the chickens space coming home to roost. It has actually been a terrible couple of months zum the judgment Justice and Development splitter linterparty (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey zu sein isolated internationally, die economy continues zu deteriorate, there space questions around Erdogan’s health, und his and the AKP’s poll numbers do notfall look good. To a variety of observers and the Turkish opposition, ns AKP’s crack-up is coming.

The Republican People’s Party, ns Good Party, and others space confident sufficient that they room advocating for in early election, make plans kommen sie ditch Erdogan’s executive presidency und return Turkey to its mischung parliamentary-presidential system. This may be premature: in iron law of the AKP era has been zu never count Erdogan out. Still, the situation for the president und his party aussehen bleak.

Among all of Turkey’s problems, it ist the deteriorating economic situation that is the Turkish leader’s most serious predicament. As a result des Erdogan’s gun mismanagement, die lira has lost about 75 percent des its value against die dollar in the tonnage decade, 45 percent bei the previous year, und 15 percent alone top top Tuesday. It ist true that Turkey—defying the odds und a globalen pandemic—grew its economy über 1.8 percent an 2020. But die overall financial picture weil das average Turks ist grim: Inflation is running at 20 percent; unemployment is 14 percent; and the gap bolzen wealthy and poor has increased. Bei response to ns lira’s collapse, a number of major Turkish banken closed their online operations and people turn out an the streets zu protest bei parts of Ankara und Istanbul portending feasible further and larger demonstrations.

In Turkey, that seems, the chickens room coming home kommen sie roost. It has actually been a terrible few months weil das the judgment Justice und Development splitter linterparty (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey ist isolated internationally, die economy continues kommen sie deteriorate, there are questions around Erdogan’s health, and his and the AKP’s poll numbers do notfall look good. Zu a variety des observers and the Turkish opposition, die AKP’s crack-up is coming.

The Republican People’s Party, die Good Party, und others are confident enough that they are advocating for in early election, making plans to ditch Erdogan’s executive, management presidency and return Turkey kommen sie its mischung parliamentary-presidential system. This may be premature: bei iron law des the AKP era has been to never count Erdogan out. Still, die situation zum the president und his party looks bleak.

Among all von Turkey’s problems, it zu sein the deteriorating economic situation that is the Turkish leader’s many serious predicament. As a result des Erdogan’s gross mismanagement, die lira has actually lost about 75 percent des its value against die dollar an the last decade, 45 percent bei the past year, and 15 percent alone on Tuesday. It zu sein true that Turkey—defying ns odds und a globalen pandemic—grew that is economy von 1.8 percent in 2020. But ns overall economic picture zum average Turks is grim: Inflation is running hinweisen 20 percent; unemployment zu sein 14 percent; and the gap between wealthy und poor has increased. An response to ns lira’s collapse, a number des major Turkish banken closed their online operations und people turn out in the streets to protest an parts of Ankara und Istanbul portending possible further and larger demonstrations.

One des the means Erdogan has actually recently sought to lift his flagging politics fortunes zu sein to improve Turkey’s relationships with its neighbors. It zu sein a reversal native 2020 when, for domestic politics purposes, the Turkish federal government embarked on bei aggressive international policy, especially in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has had some success breaking out of its isolation. The tone of its bilateral connections with ns Saudi and Emirati governments has boosted with several leadership phone calls and diplomatic visits, though it seems clear over there is blieb no love lost bolzen Turkey und the two Persian Gulf heavyweights.

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The Turks have deshalb pursued far better relations through Israel, but dafür far, die Israelis are not biting. They schutz very wenig reason kommen sie trust Erdogan. Erste off, 2 Israeli tourist were freshly arrested zum taking a photo of Dolmabahce Palace—a site ns Turkish tourism authority frequently features bei its promotional material—and accused von espionage. Castle were ultimately released, but ns episode appeared designed to whip up anti-Israel und antisemitic sentiments in Turkey for political purposes. Also, in late October, die Turkish leader told his French equivalent that Turkey would not attend the Nov. 11 paris meeting on Libya if israel (and Greece too as die Republic von Cyprus) attended. Die Israelis did notfall participate, despite Greek and Cypriot officials to be there. What Erdogan und the AKP fail kommen sie grasp zu sein that the days when israelisch would bend over backward zum good ties with Turkey in spite of Ankara’s attempts to muscle Israelis out of important international meetings, Turkey’s ties through Hamas, und Erdogan’s often-odious rhetoric around Israel and Israelis zu sein something von the past.

Then there zu sein Egypt. Over the spring and summer, die Turkish press und the government’s pendant (which space really one in the same) were periodically triumphant about the coming normalization of ties betwee Turkey and Egypt. Ns working assumption in Ankara was that the Egyptians would certainly leap at die opportunity and that boosted ties v Cairo would place pressure on die Greek, Cypriot, and Israeli governments. Yet, the Egyptians oase not been as passionate as Turkish officials calculated, having misread the importance Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi places on his country’s ties with Greece and Cyprus, i m sorry help ns Egyptian cause within die European Union’s councils.

Speaking of Europe, if not zum German Chancellor angela Merkel, the Europeans might schutz sanctioned Turkey weil das a variety von transgressions, including military operations in Syria, expedition of gas near Cyprus, und threatening kommen sie push migrants into Greece. An ext than anything else, ns latter concern underlies fraught EU-Turkey relations. Bei 2016, the europäische union began payment Ankara kommen sie keep desperate Syrians bei Turkey rather than allowing them to make your way kommen sie Europe. Despite this deal, ns Turks regular threaten kommen sie let the Syrians (and others) go through, creating a new refugee crisis and potentially sowing instability. The Turkish courts are deshalb defying die European Court von Human Rights, which has actually ruled that the continued detention des the Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala, who zu sein falsely accused des supporting terrorism, is unjust und he have to be released. This can result bei either ns suspension von Turkey’s vote rights an the Council von Europe or expulsion from ns body.

When it come to ns United States, ns Turkish federal government made a huge deal about die bilateral meeting bolzen Erdogan and U.S. Chairman Joe biden at die G-20 summit in October, yet there has not been much change an relations. The Turkish purchase and deployment des the Russian-built S-400 waiting defense system remains unresolved, Washington und Ankara are weist loggerheads over U.S. Support for the People’s defense Units (YPG) in Syria, and the Turkish government ist angry that jetzt three U.S. Administrations have refused zu extradite die Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen. An this environment, ns Turks have requested 40 new F-16 jets and upgraded kits weil das 80 more. Ns Turkish management has encouraged itself that die deals zum the planes will happen, however the stellen administration has actually been coy. Ns U.S. President made it clear the there is a “process” for such transactions. This was a polite way des saying that Congress, whereby there ist already opposition to ns deal, will have to sweet in.

It zu sein entirely unsure what any improvement in Turkey’s international standing would certainly do kommen sie help ns Turkish economy, especially because Erdogan has offered no indication of reconsidering the economic difficulties that are von his very own making. Zum years, Erdogan has actually hammered far at in alleged international plot that includes the “interest price lobby,” die CIA, Zionists, ns West, ns billionaire philanthropist george Soros, and others that seek to bring Turkey down, but the only explanation zum the financial suffering among Turks is Erdogan’s very own mismanagement. An particular, the Turkish leader has undermined die independence von the Central bank through a revolving door of governors subject to near nonstop political pressure. Erdogan has bullied succeeding Turkish central bankers—against all financial sense—to save interest rates low. Ns result has been ns sharp depreciation von the lira, which provides everything much more expensive zum Turks und wreaks destruction on the balance sheets of Turkish carriers that need to pay rückseitig dollar-denominated loans. A cheap lira does, von course, assist Turkish exports, but ns social costs are huge. Poorer Turks room living subsistence existences. Instead of the unorthodox policy von low interest rates, a hike is bei order. This would deshalb cause part pain, especially to overextended Turks, but it would reverse the lira’s slide, tamp down on inflation, und restore investor confidence. Erdogan’s commitment kommen sie low interest rates is based ~ above his calculation that cheap credit ist good zum growth and growth zu sein good for him politically, yet it zu sein not working out the way.

Added to ns problems des Turkey’s damaging foreign policies and its economic obstacles are questions approximately Erdogan’s health. Weist times, that has not looked well. Yet beyond die actual state des the Turkish leader’s health ist the ferocious response zu any questions about ns state von his well-being. Die reaction reflects ns cult von personality roughly Erdogan, however that ist hardly new. Much more revealing ist that the intemperate an answer suggests a growing gap between what the government says­­––not just about the president’s wellness but so democracy und prosperity––and objective reality. Here federal government spokespeople, media mouthpieces, und social media agitators have tried to fill the space v vitriol, trolling, and repression. Ns sheer number des people locked up an Turkey due to the fact that they schutz criticized the government is a clean indication the Erdogan und the AKP are convincing fewer und fewer people des the wisdom von their agenda. Ns effort zu shore themselves up politically becomes a vicious circle in which government officials und the drücken sie continue zu offer a narrative the does notfall conform to what human being are experiencing, leading kommen sie more questions about Erdogan and the party’s stewardship—all von which results an more arrests, an ext lies, much more questions, und more Turks bei custody, too as ns progressive deterioration des Erdogan und the AKP’s political position. This dynamic has started to zeigen up in recent polling, which reflects Erdogan shedding a presidential race against the mayors of either Ankara or Istanbul, und projects the Good Party’s leader so beating ns President.

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If Turkey under ns AKP had actually become die leading edge of democratic reversals, blazing ns path zum Hungary, Poland, and even ns United States, probably it ist now at the forefront von a autonomous correction. It zu sein difficult zu predict, des course, however it is hard to imagine that Turkey’s raft von problems, particularly its financial troubles should they persist, will notfall influence ns AKP’s electoral prospects. At ns same time, it is also hard to imagine that Erdogan zu sein willing zu lose in election fairly and squarely. Die Turkish opposition can only hope.